Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 135,044
2 South Dakota 132,813
3 Rhode Island 129,101
4 Utah 120,146
5 Tennessee 116,613
6 Arizona 115,553
7 Iowa 111,172
8 Oklahoma 110,684
9 Arkansas 109,412
10 Wisconsin 109,150
11 Nebraska 108,288
12 South Carolina 106,952
13 Alabama 105,029
14 Kansas 104,409
15 Mississippi 102,433
16 Indiana 102,305
17 New Jersey 101,905
18 Idaho 100,854
19 Nevada 98,544
20 Illinois 98,292
21 Montana 97,734
22 Georgia 97,328
23 Wyoming 97,166
24 Delaware 97,121
25 Texas 96,218
26 Kentucky 96,135
27 New York 95,813
28 Louisiana 95,597
29 Florida 95,560
30 Missouri 95,237
31 California 92,791
32 Massachusetts 91,850
33 Minnesota 91,842
34 New Mexico 91,269
35 North Carolina 87,506
36 Connecticut 86,965
37 Ohio 86,882
38 Alaska 85,292
39 Colorado 80,398
40 Pennsylvania 80,140
41 West Virginia 78,856
42 Michigan 73,985
43 Virginia 72,396
44 Maryland 67,843
45 District of Columbia 62,930
46 New Hampshire 61,567
47 Washington 48,039
48 Puerto Rico 44,061
49 Oregon 39,021
50 Maine 37,384
51 Vermont 30,623
52 Hawaii 20,968

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 523
2 New Jersey 487
3 Connecticut 453
4 New York 403
5 Rhode Island 311
6 Pennsylvania 307
7 Delaware 298
8 Alaska 296
9 Massachusetts 267
10 Vermont 259
11 Minnesota 239
12 New Hampshire 237
13 North Carolina 213
14 Florida 207
15 West Virginia 187
16 Maryland 180
17 Tennessee 176
18 Illinois 171
19 District of Columbia 170
20 Colorado 166
21 South Carolina 165
22 South Dakota 155
23 Virginia 154
24 North Dakota 150
25 Maine 148
26 Ohio 141
27 Idaho 134
28 Nebraska 132
29 Iowa 126
30 Puerto Rico 126
31 Texas 125
32 Indiana 117
33 Wyoming 109
34 Georgia 106
35 Kentucky 104
36 Utah 99
37 Washington 97
38 Louisiana 96
39 Wisconsin 96
40 Montana 92
41 Oklahoma 84
42 Arizona 79
43 New Mexico 77
44 Missouri 71
45 Oregon 66
46 California 64
47 Nevada 62
48 Alabama 61
49 Hawaii 61
50 Kansas 53
51 Mississippi 49
52 Arkansas 36

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,756
2 New York 2,554
3 Massachusetts 2,487
4 Rhode Island 2,471
5 Mississippi 2,356
6 Arizona 2,327
7 Connecticut 2,211
8 South Dakota 2,187
9 Louisiana 2,179
10 Alabama 2,146
11 North Dakota 1,965
12 Pennsylvania 1,961
13 Indiana 1,936
14 New Mexico 1,876
15 Arkansas 1,860
16 Illinois 1,857
17 Iowa 1,815
18 South Carolina 1,772
19 Georgia 1,733
20 Tennessee 1,726
21 Michigan 1,712
22 Nevada 1,700
23 Kansas 1,682
24 Texas 1,669
25 Delaware 1,601
26 Ohio 1,591
27 Florida 1,552
28 District of Columbia 1,503
29 California 1,495
30 West Virginia 1,473
31 Missouri 1,461
32 Kentucky 1,371
33 Maryland 1,368
34 Montana 1,344
35 Wisconsin 1,252
36 Minnesota 1,225
37 Oklahoma 1,225
38 Wyoming 1,200
39 Virginia 1,199
40 Nebraska 1,180
41 North Carolina 1,155
42 Idaho 1,096
43 Colorado 1,071
44 New Hampshire 909
45 Washington 696
46 Puerto Rico 661
47 Utah 660
48 Oregon 567
49 Maine 549
50 Alaska 408
51 Vermont 360
52 Hawaii 324

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Delaware 5
2 Kentucky 5
3 New York 4
4 Florida 3
5 Louisiana 3
6 New Jersey 3
7 Rhode Island 3
8 Tennessee 3
9 Arkansas 2
10 California 2
11 District of Columbia 2
12 Massachusetts 2
13 Michigan 2
14 North Carolina 2
15 Ohio 2
16 Texas 2
17 Virginia 2
18 Arizona 1
19 Connecticut 1
20 Georgia 1
21 Illinois 1
22 Indiana 1
23 Iowa 1
24 Kansas 1
25 Maryland 1
26 Mississippi 1
27 Missouri 1
28 New Mexico 1
29 Pennsylvania 1
30 South Carolina 1
31 Utah 1
32 West Virginia 1
33 Wisconsin 1
34 Alabama 0
35 Alaska 0
36 Colorado 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Idaho 0
39 Maine 0
40 Minnesota 0
41 Montana 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 Nevada 0
44 New Hampshire 0
45 North Dakota 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 South Dakota 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 353,077 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 317,136 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,914 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 244,060 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 244,011 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 135,797 204 93
Richland South Carolina 105,340 1028 67
York South Carolina 101,609 1198 61
Orange California 83,779 2030 35
Pierce Washington 46,754 2903 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,493 1765 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,291 2013 35
York South Carolina 1,274 2029 35
Richland South Carolina 1,268 2038 35
Pierce Washington 670 2728 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons